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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had finally been halted in a Test.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, indeed, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to closer margins in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, their power, their chicanery, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that some may have held for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and if available then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the European championship.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of limited game time.

Once Rae's shift ends, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Past Encounters

Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and fewer after halftime.

Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - and keep it there.

In recent years, successful opponents have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only occasionally against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? It's over.

But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.